We are privileged to witness the end of the era where the world is dominated by US economic and military power since the end of WW1. The main indicator is the largest national debt ever in human history (the current number is $9.4 trillion).
The pivotal point, as we will see in 2009, is the collapse of the dollar-based global finance system.
Since 1990s, US has been relying more and more on finance industry to boost its GDP, while outsourcing its manufacturing industry. Thanks to the stock bubble, the Clinton Administration maintained a seemingly balanced budget. Bush Administration not only revealed the hidden financial turmoil, but worsened it by waging a 5-year (and counting) war.
Mounting debt and long lasting warfare are typical symptoms of every declining empire (looking at the end of empire of Spain, Dutch and Great Britain).
Much human atrocity will follow: widely spread wars, riots and famine are no longer just in the apocalypse. They will become daily news. The world as we know it will never be the same.
OK, I am very pessimistic, but so do the 50% of the US population according to the latest CNN poll or 81% of the US population according to latest NYTimes poll.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
The danger of old guys
Many Internet startups are headed by "old guys". They were born and raised in a world that is no longer there. Their working experience in IT has long been out-dated. The only thing they are left with is greed to money and grasp of asset.
That's what ruin the whole internet technology. How could you possibly hope a revolution be headed by incumbent of the previous regime.
That's what ruin the whole internet technology. How could you possibly hope a revolution be headed by incumbent of the previous regime.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Deutsche Bank Launches Leveraged and Inverse Commodity Notes
April 29, 2008
SAN DIEGO (ETFguide.com) - Regardless of whether you love or hate commodities, a new series of exchange-traded notes (ETNs) will give you an opportunity to sound your voice.
Deutsche Bank today announced that it will issue four ETNs linked to the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index and Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield.
The ETNs will be the first to offer long, short and leveraged exposure to a broad-based commodity index.
If you think commodity prices are inflated and due for a correction, then the DB Commodity Double Short ETN (Ticker:
DEE) might be for you. It offers
exposure to two times the monthly inverse performance of the benchmark
Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index plus a monthly T-Bill index
return. Along the same lines, the DB Commodity Short ETN (Ticker: DDP)
attempts to deliver the monthly inverse performance of the same
commodity benchmark, but without leverage.
For
investors that are extremely bullish on commodities, the DB Commodity
Double Long ETN (Ticker: DYY) offers exposure to two times the monthly
performance of the Optimum Yield version of the Deutsche Bank Liquid
Commodity Index plus a monthly T-Bill index return. The DB Commodity
Long ETN (Ticker: DPU) offers exposure to the monthly performance of
the same Optimum Yield index plus the monthly T-Bill index return, but
without leverage.
"We
are thrilled with the on-going success of our commodity-linked
investment products and pleased to offer investors convenient access to
leveraged long and short commodity strategies,” said Kevin Rich,
Managing Director in Deutsche Bank's Global Markets Investment Products
group.
ETNs are debt securities that track their underlying index (minus fees) without tracking error.
A disadvantage is that as debt securities, investors absorb the credit risk of the issuer.
The
market price of an ETN isn’t just affected by the price of the
underlying index or security, but the credit quality of the issuer.
This is an important aspect to keep in mind as many financial
institutions have been hit hard by the recent credit crunch.
Investors
may trade ETNs at their market price or receive, at maturity or upon
early redemption, a cash payment from the issuer based on the
applicable index performance, less fees.
The
Deutsche Bank notes are senior unsecured debt obligations that charge
an annual fee of 0.75 percent and have 30-year maturities.
The
Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index - Optimum Yield Excess Return
Index is composed of futures contracts on six commodities and weighted
as such: Light sweet crude oil (35%), Heating Oil (20%), Gold (10%),
Aluminum (12.5%), Corn (11.25%), and Wheat (11.25%). The PowerShares DB
Commodity Index Tracking Fund (Ticker: DBC) is the exchange-traded fund (ETF) version that follows this index.
tomorrow is the big day
Fed is gonna announce how much (if there is any) rate cut tomorrow. It could drive commodity price up to send them to sink.
I am betting bearish on the dollar, meanwhile, I have set limit orders to curtail worst case loss on GLD. Rumors have it that Fed is secretively selling their gold reserve, therefore dragging gold down with the dollar. What a vicious move!
I am not the daredevil type of person that would play margin, but it does seems that a lot of the traders are anxious for their bet.
Let's the dice roll for tomorrow!
I am betting bearish on the dollar, meanwhile, I have set limit orders to curtail worst case loss on GLD. Rumors have it that Fed is secretively selling their gold reserve, therefore dragging gold down with the dollar. What a vicious move!
I am not the daredevil type of person that would play margin, but it does seems that a lot of the traders are anxious for their bet.
Let's the dice roll for tomorrow!
Monday, April 28, 2008
Dead Poets Society
It's a movie shot in 1989. The highschool teacher John (played by Robin Williams) questioned authority, and his students become casualty. I like John because he encourages his student to look at the world from an individual point of view and walk their own way. Indeed, that's how art is created from mundane daily life. Whenever somebody remind me of this, I would be kicking myself for missing all the beautiful scene around me.
The film is really about how society choose its heir. They need to blindly conform to the authority, so that its power can be preserved at the hand of the incumbent.
Nick is one of John's favorite students. Nick's parents banned him from pursuing his acting dream, because they themselves were never given the chance to pursue their dream. It's the inequality in the adult world that stiffens the children. This view is in line with Barbara Lerner's theory: "Children are noble savages, naturally pure and innately good. They have some good and evil in them. It’s just to see who they grow up with and which crowd they hang around with.
Children are a portal to our past, and through experience they become our present and future.
Another point of the movie that echoes with him is that all institutions are inherently inhuman and thus immoral.
Of course, as with most such movies, I am strictly against the white supremacy that is implied in the elite prep school and ivory league colleges.
What is in an education? It's just another way for the society to limit opportunity for the majority. Of course, I am no longer standing by the majority, because they have proved again and again to be irredeemably wrong.
ZT from wikipedia: Forex scam
I am posting this because I almost fell for the scam, because as with most scams, it was attractive at first. So here comes the wiki quote.
A forex scam is any trading scheme used to defraud individual traders by convincing them that they can expect to gain a high profit by trading in the foreign exchange market. Currency trading "has become the fraud du jour," according to Michael Dunn of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. [1] But "the market has long been plagued by swindlers preying on the gullible," according to the New York Times [2]. "The average individual foreign-exchange-trading victim loses about $15,000, according to CFTC records" according to The Wall Street Journal. [3]. The North American Securities Administrators Association says that "off-exchange forex trading by retail investors is at best extremely risky, and at worst, outright fraud." [4]
“In a typical case, investors may be promised tens of thousands of dollars in profits in just a few weeks or months, with an initial investment of only $5,000. Often, the investor’s money is never actually placed in the market through a legitimate dealer, but simply diverted – stolen – for the personal benefit of the con artists.”[5]
The forex market is a zero-sum game[6] , meaning that whatever one trader gains, another loses, except that brokerage commissions and other transaction costs are subtracted from the results of all traders, technically making forex a "negative-sum" game.
These scams might include churning of customer accounts for the purpose of generating commissions, selling software that is supposed to guide the customer to large profits, [7] improperly managed "managed accounts", [8] false advertising, [9] Ponzi schemes and outright fraud. [4] [10] It also refers to any retail forex broker who indicates that trading foreign exchange is a low risk, high profit investment. [11]
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which loosely regulates the foreign exchange market in the United States, has noted an increase in the amount of unscrupulous activity in the non-bank foreign exchange industry.[12]
An official of the National Futures Association was quoted [13] as saying, "Retail forex trading has increased dramatically over the past few years. Unfortunately, the amount of forex fraud has also increased dramatically..." Between 2001 and 2006 the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has prosecuted more than 80 cases involving the defrauding of more than 23,000 customers who lost $350 million. From 2001 to 2007, about 26,000 people lost $460 million in forex frauds. [1] CNN quoted Godfried De Vidts, President of the Financial Markets Association, a European body, as saying, "Banks have a duty to protect their customers and they should make sure customers understand what they are doing. Now if people go online, on non-bank portals, how is this control being done?"
Why retail speculators should not be able to beat the market
The foreign exchange market is a zero sum game in which there are many experienced well-capitalized professional traders (e.g. working for banks) who can devote their attention full time to trading. An inexperienced retail trader will have a significant information disadvantage compared to these traders.
Although it is possible for a few experts to successfully arbitrage the market for an unusually large return, this does not mean that a larger number could earn the same returns even given the same tools, techniques and data sources. This is because the arbitrages are essentially drawn from a pool of finite size; although information about how to capture arbitrages is a nonrival good, the arbritrages themselves are a rival good. (To draw an analogy, the total amount of buried treasure on an island is the same, regardless of how many treasure hunters have bought copies of a treasure map.)
Retail traders are - almost by definition - undercapitalized. Thus they are subject to the problem of Gambler's Ruin. In a fair game (one with no information advantages) between two players that continues until one trader goes bankrupt, the player with the lower amount of capital has a higher probability of going bankrupt first. Since the retail speculator is effectively playing against the market as a whole - which has nearly infinite capital - he will almost certainly go bankrupt.
The retail trader always pays the bid/ask spread which makes his odds of winning less than those of a fair game. Additional costs may include margin interest, or if a spot position is kept open for more than one day the trade may be "resettled" each day, each time costing the full bid/ask spread.
According to the Wall Street Journal (Currency Markets Draw Speculation, Fraud July 26, 2005) "Even people running the trading shops warn clients against trying to time the market. 'If 15% of day traders are profitable,' says Drew Niv, chief executive of FXCM, 'I'd be surprised.' "[14]
Paul Belogour, the Managing Director of a Boston based retail forex trader, was quoted by the Financial Times as saying, "Trading foreign exchange is an excellent way for investors to find out how tough the markets really are. But I say to customers: if this is money you have worked hard for – that you cannot afford to lose – never, never invest in foreign exchange." [15]
The use of high leverage
By offering high leverage, the market maker encourages traders to trade extremely large positions. This increases the trading volume cleared by the market maker and increases his profits, but increases the risk that the trader will receive a margin call. While professional currency dealers (banks, hedge funds) never use more than 10:1 leverage, retail clients are generally offered leverage between 50:1 and 200:1[2].
A self-regulating body for the foreign exchange market, the National Futures Association, warns traders in a forex training presentation of the risk in trading currency. “As stated at the beginning of this program, off-exchange foreign currency trading carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all customers. The only funds that should ever be used to speculate in foreign currency trading, or any type of highly speculative investment, are funds that represent risk capital; in other words, funds you can afford to lose without affecting your financial situation.“ [16]
Sunday, April 27, 2008
MACD
Today I learned MACD. It is an indicator of how price is going. It won't really predict the future, but you can learn a new pattern from MACD curves, rather than the stock price curve itself.
MACD is smoother (because it's based on moving average), and arguably less time-lagged than the moving average itself.
Now I regret not having used system identification method to build a model for stock market. It could result in some thing like MACD.
Friday, April 25, 2008
Bearish is good
Obviously Fed's new credit didn't support the stock market for more than half a day. Today USO rose another 2 dollar, right before I got my funds deposited.
Darn, I need to capture the next oil buy-in opportunity.
Darn, I need to capture the next oil buy-in opportunity.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Fed drive the stock market up with $59.46 billinon treasury securities
The Federal Reserve has auctioned $59.46 billion in super-safe Treasury
securities to big investment firms, part of an ongoing effort to help
strained credit markets.
This drove the stock market temporarily up and GLD & DBA down. That's a great chance to buy-in.
securities to big investment firms, part of an ongoing effort to help
strained credit markets.
This drove the stock market temporarily up and GLD & DBA down. That's a great chance to buy-in.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
DBA, USO, GLD
Today I finally find a good entry point to buy-in all the DBA I wanted.
Let's see how it fares as the summer harvest season comes.
It may or may not be the Jackpot that USO has been. But for now, at least I wouldn't have to worry about driving to costco to stack up all the rice.
In case you are curious, nobody knows why GLD is still so low given the weak dollor. I am holding my shares for the overdue GLD hike. It will be somewhere after the next Fed meeting on April 28.
In the worst case, I will buy UDN directly. Gee, if only there were such ETF in 2006.
Let's see how it fares as the summer harvest season comes.
It may or may not be the Jackpot that USO has been. But for now, at least I wouldn't have to worry about driving to costco to stack up all the rice.
In case you are curious, nobody knows why GLD is still so low given the weak dollor. I am holding my shares for the overdue GLD hike. It will be somewhere after the next Fed meeting on April 28.
In the worst case, I will buy UDN directly. Gee, if only there were such ETF in 2006.
Monday, April 21, 2008
riding the commodity bubble
The commodity market has been the new "growth" point after all the turmoils in the financial sector.
Among the EFT funds, USO alone has risen 15% since March.
The question is, when do I cash out?
In the long run, USO will still rise, but it seems to have reached a short-term correction zone. There is clearly a bubble in the oil price. What message would burst the bubble and send it down-hill? Maybe another OPEC meeting? Maybe a senator bill to raise the tax at the pump. (Just find that John MacCain had a bill to suspend gas tax this summer, which will only increase demand and thus increase oil price.)
Closely tracking the price, I can feel the fear factor: there is always a wave of cash-out in after-hour trading that send the price down for the next-day's opening. Low and behold, the price will climb up again and reach new high during the next day's day-trading.
It's always tricky to time the market, even if you know the trend.
Among the EFT funds, USO alone has risen 15% since March.
The question is, when do I cash out?
In the long run, USO will still rise, but it seems to have reached a short-term correction zone. There is clearly a bubble in the oil price. What message would burst the bubble and send it down-hill? Maybe another OPEC meeting? Maybe a senator bill to raise the tax at the pump. (Just find that John MacCain had a bill to suspend gas tax this summer, which will only increase demand and thus increase oil price.)
Closely tracking the price, I can feel the fear factor: there is always a wave of cash-out in after-hour trading that send the price down for the next-day's opening. Low and behold, the price will climb up again and reach new high during the next day's day-trading.
It's always tricky to time the market, even if you know the trend.
Friday, April 18, 2008
简单人际
Knowing it's the first rule of happiness, I have tried my best to keep my social life simple and clear.
Unfortunately, there are still chances that I will have to face one or two abrasive person, directly or indirectly. The general rule is to act according a fix rule of engagement:
1) never get personal
2) never take an offense
The trick is people can assault you anyway they wanted, but I can avoid being offended by simply ignoring their assault. Of course, in the case of a physical assault, you will need to shun or fend yourself.
3) document everything
Avoid getting into the situation of arguing who said what. Those things should be factual.
4) escalation is the last resort
In the worst case, when I absolutely can't appease the conflict, I will have to escalate it to those who can.
Unfortunately, there are still chances that I will have to face one or two abrasive person, directly or indirectly. The general rule is to act according a fix rule of engagement:
1) never get personal
2) never take an offense
The trick is people can assault you anyway they wanted, but I can avoid being offended by simply ignoring their assault. Of course, in the case of a physical assault, you will need to shun or fend yourself.
3) document everything
Avoid getting into the situation of arguing who said what. Those things should be factual.
4) escalation is the last resort
In the worst case, when I absolutely can't appease the conflict, I will have to escalate it to those who can.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
《四月物语》关于信仰的解读
看完《四月物语》，有一种莫名的感动。难道是因为现在正是四月。狭窄的学生公寓，拥挤的食堂。东京的四月，也是多雨的季节，空中也有纷飞的樱花。钓鱼社团，让我想到大学时候认识的那些人，真的只是偶然，没有太多目的。如果说童年是漫画，中年是小说，那么大学时期，就象散文诗。
回到岩井俊二这部电影，它让我感动的，是主人公为了一个虚幻的追求，不惜放弃自己习惯的一切，改变一切，独自一个人面对一切。这世界上有人就是有这种力量，可以打破一切的世俗考量，执着于一件认定的事情。
在这种执著中，或许或许会失去一些，但是换来的是心无旁骛的安然。这样的生活，不是也很惬意吗？在不经意之间，说不定还会得到那些与原先的追求不同的东西。
顺便扯一点最近的读I Don't Believe in Atheists的心得。其实人生不就是一种信仰吗？信仰终结了，人也就失去了本身的存在意义。那些宣称自己什么也不信的人，其实是信了一种自己定义的东西。
其实信无论什么，也都无可厚非，只要不强加与人，不把这种信仰作为工具，去达到不可告人的目的。
最好是信一种永远达不到的东西，因为能达到的，终必让人失望。这样达不到的信仰，才能成为永远的目标，当然还要让自己有一种不断有进步的幻觉。
My online route today
I was initially reading about Udi Manber, and how he left A9, which lead me to David Tennenhouse, which lead me to NewVenture Partners LLC.
If there is any lessons to learn. They are technologist that hops around and get their publicity boosted along the way. They held high positions in government agencies as well as private sectors. It's unclear what merit warrants their decision making power. In the end, somebody gets to play the political games at DARPA.
BTW, Mr. Tennenhouse's initiative on proactive computing probably helped my advisor to pay for my PhD studies. On that note, I am grateful to him.
In case you are curious, below are New Venture's portfolio in Computer Services
If there is any lessons to learn. They are technologist that hops around and get their publicity boosted along the way. They held high positions in government agencies as well as private sectors. It's unclear what merit warrants their decision making power. In the end, somebody gets to play the political games at DARPA.
BTW, Mr. Tennenhouse's initiative on proactive computing probably helped my advisor to pay for my PhD studies. On that note, I am grateful to him.
In case you are curious, below are New Venture's portfolio in Computer Services
 | | Airversent Owings Mills, MD Mobile resource management solutions for enterprises and carriers to automate the management of field force workers, improve operational activities and provide superior customer service. Product functionality includes work flow management, proof of service/delivery and route optimization/scheduling. Investors include New Venture Partners. |
 | | DAFCA Framingham, MA Electronic design automation (EDA) software for the creation of flexible Systems-on-Chip (SoC) solutions, which will result in faster time-to-market and lower chip development costs. Investors include 3i, Bay Partners, Kodiak Venture Partners, New Venture Partners and Vista Ventures. |
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
advice from the red book
When you have 5 minutes...
* Book that doctor's appointment you've been putting off forever.
* Write something down that you've already completed -- just so you can cross it out.
* Buff your nails.
* Tear up all those crumpled receipts in your wallet.
* Do the Pilates 100: Lie on your back, raise your legs until they're 45 degrees from the floor, then raise your head and neck to the same angle. While holding this position, keep your arms straight at your sides, palms down, and pump your arms up and down 100 times (inhale for five arm pumps and exhale for five arm pumps).
* Eat an apple (one fruit serving for today -- check!).
* Put an extra roll of toilet paper in the bathroom and another roll of paper towels in your kitchen.
* Make your bed.
* Windex your mirror and say, "Hello, gorgeous!"
* Write a check for the bill that's due next.
* Sign up to have your favorite newspaper's headlines and news briefs emailed to you daily.
* Polish your favorite black pumps with a baby wipe (this is safe for leather and patent leather, but not suede).
* Pluck your eyebrows.
* Call 888-5OPTOUT to stop getting all those credit card solicitations in the mail.
* Add extra canned goods to your grocery list to donate to charity.
When you have 15 minutes...
* Clean out your little junk drawer, the one with all the dried-out pens, the collection of twist ties, etc.
* Apply a moisturizing mask -- try Skinvitals H-Revive ($9.99 for three; available at mass retailers).
* Empty all the garbage cans in your house and take out the trash.
* Iron your favorite shirt and pair of pants.
* Order a free copy of your credit report at annualcreditreport.com (here, you can order one free report per year from each of the three major credit bureaus -- Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion).
* Toss a bunch of ingredients in the slow-cooker -- then totally forget about them until dinnertime.
* Get a slow-cooker at cooking.com if you don't have one already.
* Do 15 sit-ups, 10 squats, 8 push-ups (girly ones are fine) -- and then do slow, soothing stretches for the next five minutes.
* Find out the hours of your local food bank or homeless shelter and get directions to their food-donation drop-off.
When you have 30 minutes...
Call that great-aunt of yours in Florida -- you know, the one you've been meaning to phone for the past three months (and feel guilty for neglecting).
Surf the Web to gather ideas for your next vacation.
Read one chapter of a good book.
Pick out your outfits for the coming week, including accessories -- you can even create some new shoe-and-bag combinations.
Buy birthday cards for all the friends and family members who turn one year older this month.
Vacuum up the dog or cat hair on your sofa. Then buy a book about how to get your pet to stay off the furniture.
Turn off your cell phone, close your email, and enjoy 30 minutes of quiet.
Plan a special meal for your next date night in -- check out our Recipe Finder (http://www.redbookmag.com/recipefinder/) for new dishes to really spice things up.
* Write (yes, by hand) a letter to a friend who lives far away.
* Give yourself a pedicure.
* Update your framed pictures -- replace a few older photos with snapshots of newer memories you want to enjoy every day.
* Comparison shop for your next big-ticket purchase.
* Check out shopzilla.com for prices at stores (including JCPenney, Neiman Marcus, and Best Buy) on everything from suits to stereos.
* Bring extra canned goods to your local food bank or homeless shelter. Delight in how good it feels to give.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Your bike can use some love
I crashed my bike last week and sent it to a bike shop last Sat. When I called them for estimate for repair, the guy said to me, "How much work do you want to get done on it?"
"I just need to replace the head and crank."
"OK, then you are looking around $200 for parts and $35 for labor. "
"That's fine."
"BTW, your bike can really use some love."
"You mean lubrication? Oh yeah, please lubricate the chains."
"No, I meant there are various places broken." Then he gave me a long list of problems.
I guess that's the price for ignoring an important part of my life and use as if it's always ready. I will have to learn how to take care of my bike.
Since my road bike is out of commission, I borrowed Andrew's mountain bike for Sunday's Lake Washington training. I was really dragging Ever's speed down, because the mountain bike is just not built for speeding through city route.
Don't take me wrong, it's a great mountain bike, I don't even feel anything when zipping down off-road trails, while Ever had to be very careful on those steep slopes.
"I just need to replace the head and crank."
"OK, then you are looking around $200 for parts and $35 for labor. "
"That's fine."
"BTW, your bike can really use some love."
"You mean lubrication? Oh yeah, please lubricate the chains."
"No, I meant there are various places broken." Then he gave me a long list of problems.
I guess that's the price for ignoring an important part of my life and use as if it's always ready. I will have to learn how to take care of my bike.
Since my road bike is out of commission, I borrowed Andrew's mountain bike for Sunday's Lake Washington training. I was really dragging Ever's speed down, because the mountain bike is just not built for speeding through city route.
Don't take me wrong, it's a great mountain bike, I don't even feel anything when zipping down off-road trails, while Ever had to be very careful on those steep slopes.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
surreal
Sometimes, being surreal is a big advantage. It defers judgment and gives you breathing space in a different dimension of the world. When you immerse into it and feel like being part of it, the art is born.
Friday, April 4, 2008
世事如棋
以前老爸逼我学围棋，我总是觉得记定势太难，输棋太没面子，就算赢了又能怎样呢？不过是一场游戏。所以我没有好好学。
今天想想，围棋里面的道理其实很深。比如说布局阶段，需要的是耐心和广阔的视野，因为所有的子力都没有用来形成实地。这个时候，如果急于收空，反而会错过先机。开局也要步步为营，虽然是在造势，还没有形成实空，但是也要分秒必争，因为慢一步，错一步，都可能导致最终的满盘皆输。
开局之后就是中盘，这时候是生死搏斗，要在生死关头，仍然保持清醒的头脑，还要懂得用全局的观点，必要时丢卒保帅。每一颗子都是investment，投得越多，放弃时就损失的越多。所以要放弃时，一定不能优柔寡断。
最后是收官，这时候大局已定，但还是要小心谨慎，因为输赢的差别，有时就在一个空的细节。
Confidential
Shadowing the sales team gives me some first-hand experience dealing with (potential) business partners, but also could have ruined my career (for the next 2 years at least).
On the negotiation table, Nick's face told me a big "NO NO"; only then did I realize that I almost made the worst mistake by disclosing confidential information to external parties.
I felt grateful to Kurt's forgiving my ignorance. He could have shut me out from that point, but instead he encouraged me to follow through with the case. I learned another lesson in people skill: think confidentiality before speaking about anything; don't assume anything is public before it's announced.
On the negotiation table, Nick's face told me a big "NO NO"; only then did I realize that I almost made the worst mistake by disclosing confidential information to external parties.
I felt grateful to Kurt's forgiving my ignorance. He could have shut me out from that point, but instead he encouraged me to follow through with the case. I learned another lesson in people skill: think confidentiality before speaking about anything; don't assume anything is public before it's announced.
short-term oil, long-term gold
Today my limit order kicked in during the small gain of AMZN, and I managed to sell all my vested shares. I figure the unvested shares are enough long-term investment for the business that I worked in.
My regular portefolio is now 50% in oil and 50% in gold. My rational is the following:
I am pretty sure there will be short term gain in oil demand, simply because summer is coming. Inflation would kick in sooner or later, when the next round of interest reduction arrives.
I would have done the same distribution for my 401(k), if I had the choice. But right now, I can ONLY leave them in mixture of bond and mutual fund of international markets. That's why I consider 401(k) as a sucker's game. You can't even control how to hedge your own retirement saving, and have it watch it eaten away by inflation. That's just the biggest scam the financial industry and US government have invented.
Be prepared for biannual career changes
The latest blog from PBS's Cringely Ozzy Knows Best rings a lot of bells for me.
Especially the following:
"This emerging world will be very different in many ways. How many of these kids
expect to someday earn a pension? Surveys show that few of them expect Social
Security to even survive until their retirement -- if they can ever retire at
all. Where we went through a couple career changes they'll go through half a
dozen or more in a life that will outlast ours by 20 years. Growing up is
changing from becoming what you will be to becoming what you will be for a while...."
I felt like I was missing something when moving from Fuji-Xerox to Amazon. It was a big career shift. And I am still in the process of getting used my new role. Every now and then, I still review papers and go to conferences to keep up with the latest trend in computer vision, a field with ever-blurring boundary. Part of computer vision has died (and I won't name those areas in order not to offend people that are still working on that part); the rest has transformed into well-defined problems in various specific industry, like Print-on-Demand, video surveillance, movie-making, etc.
As Tom used to say, "There is no use beating a dead-house". The same scenario applies to Artificial Intelligence (aka Machine Learning after Minsky declared death of AI).
I should say there was a moment of disappointment when I realize there is no way to get into the same position as those people that I grew up admiring (Turing, Hamming, Marr, King-Sun Fu), because the job descriptions have changed; be it researchers in industry labs or professors in universities, at least in US.
What are the essential things that are not changing in my next career? People skills, time management, sales pitches and persistence to success.
Especially the following:
"This emerging world will be very different in many ways. How many of these kids
expect to someday earn a pension? Surveys show that few of them expect Social
Security to even survive until their retirement -- if they can ever retire at
all. Where we went through a couple career changes they'll go through half a
dozen or more in a life that will outlast ours by 20 years. Growing up is
changing from becoming what you will be to becoming what you will be for a while...."
I felt like I was missing something when moving from Fuji-Xerox to Amazon. It was a big career shift. And I am still in the process of getting used my new role. Every now and then, I still review papers and go to conferences to keep up with the latest trend in computer vision, a field with ever-blurring boundary. Part of computer vision has died (and I won't name those areas in order not to offend people that are still working on that part); the rest has transformed into well-defined problems in various specific industry, like Print-on-Demand, video surveillance, movie-making, etc.
As Tom used to say, "There is no use beating a dead-house". The same scenario applies to Artificial Intelligence (aka Machine Learning after Minsky declared death of AI).
I should say there was a moment of disappointment when I realize there is no way to get into the same position as those people that I grew up admiring (Turing, Hamming, Marr, King-Sun Fu), because the job descriptions have changed; be it researchers in industry labs or professors in universities, at least in US.
What are the essential things that are not changing in my next career? People skills, time management, sales pitches and persistence to success.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Two kinds of things
Strangely, those things that I feel good while doing it will make me feel awful when I thought of it afterwards (like drinking, fooling around, watching stupid movies), while those things that I struggle and suffer while doing it (like the trumpet band drill, German class and last-minute paper revisions), turn out to be the most worthwhile experience. Merely thinking back to those suffering time puts a smile on my face.
Life is a journey, you remember better about the time on the road than the moment you reach the destination.
When we use "we"
I realize that most of usage of the word "we" is an euphemism. The purpose is either to appear "team-oriented" (as in single author research papers), or to shed responsibility (as in "what we really need to do is to bring people out of poverty.")
The latter case is more damaging, because it blinds people from the real party that needs be held accountable (be it UN, World Bank or IMF).
The latter case is more damaging, because it blinds people from the real party that needs be held accountable (be it UN, World Bank or IMF).
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
lost innocence, lost opportunity
The Web used to be such a cozy charming place.
Not any more, online advertising has polluted the web space into a dump yard of rage and gossip. Ads driven business makes "click-rate" the only gold rule of the Web. No wonder web hosts are willing to do all nasty things to boost their "click-rate".
Capital, once again, turned a wonderful piece of creative work into its slave. Along goes the audience of the web. Human being missed another chance to advance its morality. Tyranny, once again, succeeded in taming the glimmer of "people power".
NYT: tiny projector from samsung!
Novelties
Coming Soon, to Any Flat Surface Near You
Tiny projectors may soon cast big images on walls, or even on train seatbacks. At left, a prototype from Iljin DSP, hooked up to a cellphone. At right, the Samsung MBP-100.
By ANNE EISENBERG
Published: March 30, 2008
TIRED of hearing other people’s cellphone conversations? It may become worse. Soon you may have to watch their favorite television shows and YouTube videos, too, as they project them onto nearby walls or commuter-train seatbacks.
Pint-size digital projectors are in the works. These devices, when plugged into cellphones and portable media players, will let consumers beam video content from their hand-held devices to the closest smooth surface — entertaining themselves, annoying their neighbors and possibly contributing to a new warning sign: No Projectors in This Area. The microprojectors, still in prototype, use light-emitting diodes, lasers or a combination of the two to cast a display of up to 50 or 60 inches, or perhaps even wider, in darkened spaces and 7 to 20 inches or so when there is ambient light.
Digital projectors were once bulky. These new models, though, are small enough to fit into the pocket of consumers who want a big-screen experience from a small-screen device. Some of the models are expected to be on the market by year-end, or sooner.
Prices have yet to be announced. Matthew S. Brennesholtz, an analyst at Insight Media, a marketing research firm in Norwalk, Conn., says he thinks the projectors will initially cost about $350, then quickly drop to less than $300.
The projectors may be particularly useful for business presentations — for example, when road warriors need to show a product video to small groups. No coordination would be needed to arrange for a screen. Instead, a patch of wall within a cubicle or restaurant could serve for an impromptu presentation. In a pinch, a manila folder — or even a napkin — would work, too.
Carolina Milanesi, a research director in London for Gartner, the research firm, says she thinks the microprojectors are most likely to appeal to business travelers who, for example, could use them to beam PowerPoint shows from their smartphones.
But Ms. Milanesi is dubious about consumers using them in public, for instance, to project documents on a train seatback because they could so easily be read by others. “I hate it even when I am on the subway and the guy next to me is reading my paper,” she said.
The projectors will first appear in free-standing, companion units to cellphones and other devices, Mr. Brennesholtz said, connected to them by standard cables. Later, the projector modules will be directly embedded in phones, as cameras are today. About 16 manufacturers are working on mini-projectors, he said.
Insight Media forecasts a substantial and fast-growing market. “We anticipate total sales of more than $2.5 billion by 2012 for the companion models,” Mr. Brennesholtz said, and $1 billion in revenue for projector modules that are integrated into cellphones and other devices.
Cellphone service providers have been a driving force behind mini-projector development, said Jinwoo Bae, business team leader for Iljin DSP, a company in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, south of Seoul, that is working on a prototype. “Revenue growth from voice service is becoming saturated,” Dr. Bae said, “so telecom service providers are looking for new revenue from video content.”
Iljin DSP’s microprojector, which will be marketed and distributed by SK Telecom, a large wireless operator in South Korea, projects images of 7 to 60 inches, depending on a room’s lighting; the device’s light source is a combination of lasers and L.E.D.’s. The lithium ion battery lasts about two hours, Dr. Bae said.
The company is also building a projector engine to be placed inside cellphones. “We need to reduce the power consumption” of the module, he said. “A stand-alone projector can have its own battery, but modules integrated into a mobile phone use the phone’s battery,” limiting the amount of power than can be drawn, he said.
A miniprojector engine is now being manufactured by 3M. It will be sold within a stand-alone projector offered by Samsung this year, said Mike O’Keefe, marketing manager for 3M’s mobile projection technology. The projector, called the Samsung MBP-100, connects to consumer devices like MP3 players that have video output.
Mr. Brennesholtz of Insight Media was shown a model of the Iljin DSP projector in a restaurant in New York when he met with executives from the company. “I’m not sure what the other diners thought about seeing a Korean sit-com projected on the ceiling of the restaurant,” Mr. Brennesholtz said.
As it turned out, there was too much ambient light for the image to look good on the ceiling.
“But on a napkin, or on the cover of a box,” he said, “it looked fine.”
Today's surge
Dow rose 400 points today, gave me another chance to exit. Unfortunately, my RSU is subject to trading windows. I took the opportunity to buy more gold and oil. When everyone is relieved and optimistic, I always warn myself of the 10 trillion debt. The Economic basic is not going to change just because of Treasury Secretary's speech. I look at today as exactly the same as last Monday's short surge when Bear Stearn deal was announced.
Tomorrow, people will wake up and cash out, that's when the market really plummets.
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