Founder lunch

今天碰到Founder的一个师兄，大概比我早8级吧，现在已经是Founder旗下公司的国际部总监了。8年后我也爬不到Director吧。就算爬到了，也是给外国人打工。有时候想想，同样是被剥削，给中国公司总要更有意义一些。至少交的税有一部分是帮助了中国，而不是给美国用来打仗。

听他说起Founder, 觉得不愧是受王选栽培出来的人，境界就是不一样啊，这辈子我就是成不了王选，偶尔想想他老人家也挺振奋的，是中国搞工程的人的榜样。

 

不过提到中国出版，就难免要提到新闻出版的管制，什么时候中国政府才能真正有勇气让国人说自己的想法，而不受层层的censorship呢？Goolge被great firewall管制, 俺们可不能重蹈覆辙。

总结一下最近的发现

最近看到一句话：

“旅行是一个过程，一次发现。是一个自我发现的过程。”

我坐在家里，也发现了不少。

 

1) 达尔文的<物种起源>并非鼓吹人类社会的进化也是“物竞天择，适者生存”。相反，他书中只有两处提到“适者生存”，第二处还是为自己用这个词而道歉。他认为人类社会进步更多的应该依靠教育。人与人直接的关系，更多的应该是爱与互相理解。这与那些打着达尔文旗号的社会达尔文主义者，有着本质的不同。

 

2）厨房的下水系统与洗碗机不能同时使用。见说明书。不过安装我还是没搞懂。

 

3) D-Link DWL-900+AP 比 DWL-900AP要牛叉很多，不是一个"+"号可以形容的。

 

4) 一个真正的基督教徒可以质疑耶稣是不是复活，但是不能因此就放弃自己的价值观与信仰。信仰是关于现在，而不是关于过去。

 

5) 养金鱼的碳粒，是用来放在抽水泵的filter里面的，不是直接往水里扔的。:(

 

6) Too much deductible is not going to work, because there is always AMT waiting at the end.

So we are deep in recession, now what?

Let me rephrase my question as:
when is the best time to startup, to invest, to take vacation, to get a degree?
The answer is always "NOW". Because waiting will not get you to anywhere.
Let me just elaborate a bit about why it's a good time to startup. First, the interest rate is lower. It's true that credit is hard to find, but at least talking to the loan officer now will give you a better position in the line when credit becomes loose near the end of the recession. Fewer entrepreneurs means more opportunities for you. By the time everyone
agrees it's a good time, the competition will be much more heated and fierce.

一个好消息也不足以支撑amzn呀

机构都抽资去亚洲了，看来Q1report一出来就得跑了。
今天早上开会，错过了昨天好消息带来的一个短暂反弹。

Amazon POD in WSJ

Amazon Tightens Grip on Printing

By JEFFREY A. TRACHTENBERG
March 28, 2008; Page B4

Amazon.com
Inc., flexing its muscles as a major book retailer, notified publishers
who print books on demand that they will have to use its on-demand
printing facilities if they want their books directly sold on Amazon's
Web site.

The move signals that Amazon is intent on using its
position as the premier online bookseller to strengthen its presence in
other phases of bookselling and manufacturing. Amazon is one of the
biggest booksellers in the U.S., with a market share publishing experts
estimate to be about 15%. Amazon doesn't comment on sales.

News of Amazon's new policy was posted on several Web sites on Thursday, including Fonerbooks.com and WritersWeekly.com.

Print-on-demand is a rapidly growing printing
technology that allows publishers to quickly produce copies of books.
Instead of printing a large quantity months before a title goes on
sale, publishers can print copies in response to requests from
retailers or other customers.

The technique has been embraced by more than half of
the country's university presses and virtually all of the major
consumer publishers in the U.S. for some titles, said Albert N. Greco,
a professor at the Fordham Graduate School of Business who studies the
book industry.

"You can print and bind a 256-page paperback with a
cover in under ten minutes, which means publishers can replenish their
inventory within a few hours versus going to a traditional printer that
might need weeks to prepare the same order."

A number of companies offer print-on-demand services
to publishers, including Amazon's BookSurge unit, which it acquired in
2005, as well as rivals such as Lightning Source, a unit of closely
held Ingram Industries Inc. A spokesman for Lightning Source said the
company has printed more than 50 million books for more than 5,000
publishers world-wide since its founding in 1997.

Amazon's decision means that any of those publishers
who want their books sold on the giant Web site will have to use
BookSurge. Not only will that squeeze rivals like Lightning Source, it
will reduce publishers' bargaining power.

Publishers will "have to abide by Amazon's pricing,"
said Bob Young, CEO of Lulu Inc, a print-on-demand publisher based in
Raleigh, N.C. Mr. Young said he believed BookSurge's prices to be
"slightly higher" than other printers. An Amazon spokesman declined to
comment on that issue.

"A significant number of our authors do request for
their books to be available on Amazon," said Mr. Young, who hasn't yet
decided whether he will agree to Amazon's terms.

The move will likely generate significant profit for
Amazon, which has evolved into a fully vertical book publishing and
retail operation. Most recently, Amazon acquired audiobook seller
Audible Inc. Amazon also sells its own ebook reader called the Kindle.

"It's a strategic decision," said Tammy Hovey, a
spokeswoman for Amazon. What we're looking to do is have a
print-on-demand business that better serves our customers and authors.
When we work with some other publishers, it's not truly a
print-on-demand business." Ms. Hovey, who said Amazon began to inform
publishers of the new policy at the end of February, declined to
provide specifics. She said she doesn't consider the move an ultimatum.

Write to Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg at jeffrey.trachtenberg@wsj.com

What Will Life Be Like in the Year 2008? (Nov, 1968)

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Capital has no morality

Gaming (euphemism for gambling) is proclaimed as the recession-proof vehicle for all the cash flow out of the tech stock today. Nobody during the interview cares to even mention the question whether it is moral to take advantage of the weakness in human beings (blind risk taking when you can least afford it).
That just shows how amoral or even immoral Capital is.
Just imagine how tragic it is when the pension fund of a widow is invest into a casino by a hedge fund manager, while the widow's family actually got killed by the mob that is associated with the same casino. Collectively, all the 401(k) account holders are funding the crimes of drug dealers and mobs. And the elected government is bailing out the institute that engineered all this robbery.

Chasing for the next profit, no matter where it comes from. This is another proof that human being does not progress morally.

Tekkonkinkreet: 爱与诚

This is one of the few dark movie with a truly happy ending.
The main story is well captured by the imdb user comments.
I just want to take note of the side story that really moved me. The aging yakuza Sawada knew his day was coming. He drank beer with his former apprentice Kimura knowing he was sent to kill him. Instead of fighting for survival, Sawada lead Kimura to a backstreet and sat down on the ground, waiting for his death. He even taught Kimura how to kill him and how to live his life. "Love and Honesty are the most important thing" was his last word to Kimura. Then he died quietly with Kimura's bullet through his chest. It is a bit ironic that a gangster living in the dark underground world would say such noble words, but the film is very convincing in depicting that everyone has the right to keep his own integrity.
 
Eventually, Kimura made the right decision to use the same pistol to kill the Snaky boss, who cold-bloodly ordered Kimura to assassinate Sawada.

Seattle ranked 2nd in the cleanest city in US

Original post here.

No. 2: Seattle, Wash.

The nearby Cascade Mountains keep pollution low. Seattle also spends more per capita on waste management than any major city.

Gold and Oil rose, Dow lagging

Having dumped 50% of my stock during the weekend, I was a bit surprised when the market was still bullish on Monday. Nevertheless I dumped all my dollor-tied stock in exchange for gold and oil yesterday. The market proved me correct today.

 

Unfortunately I can't do the same for my 401(k) allocations. What a blunt robbery for the Fed to tie almost all 401(k) options to the dollor, while keep printing notes to bail out the greedy bear (Bear Stearns that is).

In my humble opinion any investment tied to dollar is going to the sink, so I will keep my 401(k) deference to the minimum.  

 

My real concern is when consumer spending shrinks, Amazon revenue is going down. The current $74 stock price will not last long, and many people will get downsized. Better start cashing out and embracing for a tough period of recession.  

I will hold on to AMZN until their Q1 report is out, although Q1 is usually tricky.

Film Noir: In a Lonely Place (1950)

In this movie, Dixon (by Humphrey Bogart ) had the following quote:"I was born when she kissed me. I died when she left me. I lived for a few weeks when she loved me."
He never could find a script to put those lines in, except for the movie in which he is just a fictional character living for a few weeks when a woman loved him for a few weeks but broke up with him due to a police investigation. Once the trust is lost, the relationship is dead: that's how fragile love is.

The turning point of Imperial US

I was reading "Kingmakers: The Invention of the Modern Middle East" these days, and fount it a real eye opener to all the glories and stumbles of Great Britain had from its high-noon to dusk(1820s to 1920s) in the middle east (Middle East is a term coined by an American strategist, Captain Alfred Thayer in his 1902 National Review article.).
Current US occupation of Iraq can very much be compared to British ruling of Egypt, only less tactical and more violent. History proves that every empire eventually falls. It's quite short-sighted for the neoconservatives to take the supreme economic and military status of Imperial US since 1950s for granted and act as if it will last forever. With oil price reaching $110 a barrel, we are seeing the turning point of an empire built on top of petroleum.

why people take all the financial risk

Subprime mortgage, stock market bubble and housing bubble are all ridiculously high-risk ventures. Why would an average Joe stop at the red light even when there is no traffic but still willing to take such high risk with their bread money?
For one thing, there is nobody pay for ad campaigns to jump the red-light (except for those Z3 beemer ads).
Another reason is that US society has lost the mobility where one could change his/her social class by working harder. The mundane daily work/life is driving people to risk all they have for a chance to "win". It's a fundamental dilemma to live in a society under strict social control similar to India's caste system, yet pretending to be in a "free" society.
The financial institutes are merely taking advantage of this desperate mentality to separate people from their hard-earned wage by selling them all kinds high-risk derivatives.    

Present the Case

I used to be naive enough to believe that it's what you did that defines how people view your work. Along the way, I learned that how you present it will have as much as 50% of effect on people's view.
The higher management just don't want to know the technical details. All they care is ROI and securing their own position.
If you manage to wrap your case to fit their appetite, it will fly.

Business stupidity

Business Intelligence has been a hot topic for as long as Java is around. Yet business are not becoming more intelligent. Instead, they become harder to steer, slower to react, and less adaptable to changes.

The result is the whole private sector chasing after one-trend and then another (first 6 sigma, then consolidation, then outsourcing & globalization). The efficiency of the modern finance system didn't help. It only facilitate all the the unwise moves, and make them more devastating.

There is a natural selection process that is driving the deteriorating of business intelligence (or the lack of intelligence). Those who climbed the ladder by making stupid moves will inevitably prefer to promote people that are just like them, resulting in a wave of inadequate "leaders".

It takes so many emails, phone-calls and meetings to wade through this wave, that by the time I can get sth through to the big boss, the person that signed off the original plan has already moved to a different company. Then I have to go all the way back to have his replacement to sign off the plan all over again.

Such bureaucracy in the private sector is called "business stupidity".
  

NYT as an exmaple of main stream media's mis-use of language

NYT says "Economy Lost 63,000 Jobs in February"

 

Economy has been treated as a naughty creature that acts on its own. It gains, it loses. The reality is, there is no such thing as THE economy. It is all human running around making bets on the next profit growth point. They are driven by greediness and couldn't care less about "THE economy".

Those "lost" jobs, translate to saving on payroll cost on their cash flow statement. They were never on the asset column of their balance sheet, so it's not a loss at all. They will stay happy and even more profitable, as long as the White house keeps denying that we are in a recession and Fed keep pumping cash into the income statement of those large corporations (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, etc) by borrowing from future generations and/or printing more notes to drive inflation higher.

 

Let's see what all this craziness will drive the earth and human kind into. A sustainable future? I don't think so.

 

 

stuff I learned from work

Never over-commit. Leave a buffer for yourself. Say 80% if you can do 100%. That way, you get extra credit for doing 100%.

Document everything. On important issues, get them in writing. You never know when the other party will change his mind and eat their words. Better yet, start recording all the tel-conferences.

Stay detached and never get personal. It's just a project, not your whole career, nor your whole life. Nobody is going to die even if they say "a few heads are going to roll"